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Bayes Theorem: A Visual Introduction For Beginners, by Dan Morris
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Bayes Theorem Examples: A Beginners Visual Approach to Bayesian Data Analysis
If you are looking for a short beginners guide packed with visual examples, this booklet is for you.
From Google search results to Netflix recommendations and investment strategies, Bayes Theorem (also often called Bayes Rule or Bayes Formula) is used across countless industries to help calculate and assess probability.
Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids.
In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works - and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios - the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping - are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved.
Over 60 hand-drawn visuals are included throughout to help you work through each problem as you learn by example. The illustrations are simple, hand-drawn, and in black and white.
For those interested, we have also included sections typically not found in other beginner guides to Bayes Rule. These include:
- A short tutorial on how to understand problem scenarios and find P(B), P(A), and P(B|A). For many people, knowing how to approach scenarios and break them apart can be daunting. In this booklet, we provide a quick step-by-step reference on how to confidently understand scenarios.
- A few examples of how to think like a Bayesian in everyday life. Bayes Rule might seem somewhat abstract, but it can be applied to many areas of life and help you make better decisions. It is a great tool that can help you with critical thinking, problem-solving, and dealing with the gray areas of life.
- A concise history of Bayes Rule. Bayes Theorem has a fascinating 200+ year history, and we have summed it up for you in this booklet. From its discovery in the 1700’s to its being used to break the German’s Enigma Code during World War 2, its tale is quite phenomenal.
- Fascinating real-life stories on how Bayes formula is used in everyday life.From search and rescue to spam filtering and driverless cars, Bayes is used in many areas of modern day life. We have summed up 3 examples for you and provided an example of how Bayes could be used.
- An expanded definitions, notations, and proof sectionWe have included an expanded definitions and notations sections at the end of the booklet. In this section we define core terms more concretely, and also cover additional terms you might be confused about.
- A recommended readings sectionFrom The Theory That Would Not Die to a few other books, there are a number of recommendations we have for further reading. Take a look!
If you are a visual learner and like to learn by example, this intuitive booklet might be a good fit for you. Bayesian statistics is an incredibly fascinating topic and likely touches your life every single day. It is a very important tool that is used in data analysis throughout a wide-range of industries - so take an easy dive into the theorem for yourself with a visual approach!
- Sales Rank: #1184 in eBooks
- Published on: 2016-10-02
- Released on: 2016-10-02
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
13 of 13 people found the following review helpful.
Easy to understand introduction
By Doug Erlandson
As someone who taught logic for more than 20 years, I was interested in seeing how Dan Morris handled Bayes Theorem in what he calls "A Visual Introduction for Beginners." What Morris has presented is a useful way to provide the reader with a basic understanding of how to apply the theorem. He takes it easy step by easy step and explains matters in a way that almost anyone can understand. Moreover, by using Venn Diagrams and other visuals, he gives the reader multiple ways of understanding exactly what is going on in Bayes theorem. After an introductory section he applies Bayes theorem to examples from day-to-day life (such as how to ascertain the likelihood of having food poisoning versus the flu). The way in which he presents this material helps solidify in the reader's mind how to use Bayes theorem. For me, the best part came toward the end of the book, when he discusses how Bayes theorem is used in search and rescue operations, spam filtering, and even in the technology behind driverless cars.
The back material includes a section on "Recommended In-Depth Reading," which I would highly recommend for anyone wanting to go further in their understanding of Bayes theorem. (In fact, I'm seriously considering reading some of these works to enhance my own understanding of how to assess probability in everyday life.) The "Bibliography" also provides a list of articles and books that discuss various aspects of Bayes theorem.
5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
A Helpful Illustration of An Important Statistical Tool -
By Loyd Eskildson
Author Morris begins by pointing out that Bayes' Theorem is used in Google search logic, Netflix recommendations, hedge fund decisions, and many other areas. Stated simply, Bayes' Theorem tells us how much we should change our assessment of probabilities when we encounter new evidence. Venn diagrams and decision trees are used to help visualize the mathematics.
3 of 3 people found the following review helpful.
An Excellent Visual Primer for Home School Courses... and Those Who Simply Absorb Information Better with Illustrations
By Tinfoot
For those who are predominately "Visual Learners", as I certainly am, I highly recommend Morris' introduction! I took statistics in college, and came away with the highest math-related grade I ever got purely due to the visual tools that statistical analysis provides... yet I must say I believe I gained more from this book than I did from college statistics. Or at least, one fantastic refresher after 20 some years after the fact. :)
Picked up this book during a brief, open-to-all-shoppers free promotion, and absolutely glad I did. Yet I would certainly say the $2.99 is a good value, especially for Home School educational purposes.
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